The Case Against
Why the BCS Needs to be Fixed or Just
Removed.
By Robert Flaxman
Yeah, we've already seen plenty of arguments on this topic, but I'm going to throw my two cents in just because this year is shaping up to be the proof of the BCS' uselessness, just as this year's presidential election has made it pretty clear that the electoral college is a lumbering dinosaur that needs to be put to sleep. Without the electoral college, of course, we wouldn't be in the situation we're currently in in Florida; Al Gore has more popular votes, and that's that. But I digress.
The BCS already has some flaws. For one thing, it
takes the Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, and Rose Bowls and puts them in a rotation of the
National Championship game. In the BCS' first year, it was the Fiesta Bowl, which
matched Florida State and Tennessee. In its second year, it was the Sugar Bowl,
which matched Florida State and Virginia Tech. This year it is the Orange Bowl.
So what's the problem? In the first two years of the BCS, it was
pretty clear that the teams playing for the title were the top two teams in the nation.
The polls could all agree, and certainly this was a better system than when
Nebraska and Michigan had split the national title, just the year before. Right?
Well, sure, then. But this year there is a distinct problem.
The Miami Hurricanes are 10-1 and are ranked #2 in both polls. The Florida
State Seminoles are 11-1 and are ranked #3 in both polls. The basic reason for this
is Miami's win over FSU on October 7, 27-24. Neither team has lost since, and so
Miami has managed to stay ahead of Florida State in the minds of the AP writers and the
coaches.
But not in the minds of the BCS. Unlike the polls, the BCS is
organized solely by statistics. As in golf, the idea is to get the lowest score.
#1 Oklahoma currently leads with a total of 3.96 points: 1 point for the average of
their poll ranking, 2 points for the average of their computer rankings (the lowest
computer ranking is dropped), and 0.96 points for their strength of schedule (a team gets
four hundredths of a point for each SOS rank they are at - the Sooners are #24 in SOS;
thus 24 times .04). There is also an addition of losses, but Oklahoma has none.
Miami's poll average is 2, Florida State's is 3. The two teams
are #1 and #2 in strength of schedule (FSU is #1), meaning that only .04 separates them in
that category. Both teams have one loss, even in that category. So Miami leads
by .96 right now.
Of course, we have to factor in the computers. And this is where
the difference comes in. Not one of the computers factors in head-to-head
competition. All eight factor in strength of schedule, or something similar (such as
"quality teams played" or the like). Fine. Here is the problem:
three of the computers factor in "margin of victory," essentially meaning that a
team is rewarded for running up the score. Florida State is ahead of Miami in these
three computers. But more importantly, they are ahead of Miami in every single
computer ranking. How is this possible? Did Florida State not lose to
Miami?
The Dunkel Index, for example, factors in "strength of schedule,
won-loss record, stress most recent performances and the upset factor." Okay...
Miami and Florida State are virtually equal in strength of schedule and win-loss record.
So let's look at "most recent performances." Miami beat Florida
State on October 7. Miami's lone loss, meanwhile, came wayyyy back in
September, to a team now ranked #4 in the country. What's the problem? FSU is
still ranked #1 in the Dunkel, Miami #2.
In a perfect world, Oklahoma would have choked to
Oklahoma State. Why is that perfect? Because it would eliminate the current
problem. Oklahoma is only ranked #1 in two of the eight computers at the moment:
David Rothman and the Seattle Times. The other six #1s belong to Florida State.
Of those six computers, two have the Hurricanes ahead of the Sooners at #2, and
none have Miami lower than #3. OU's performance against OSU, on the heels of their
comeback against Texas A&M and not altogether convincing win over Texas Tech, has
convinced some people that the Sooners are not the #1 team in the country. The BCS
is not likely to drop them, however, for two reasons: the polls won't until they lose, and
having no losses is a pretty good advantage in the BCS rankings.
So the current problem of whether FSU or Miami is more deserving would
be resolved with an Oklahoma loss, because Florida State and Miami would meet again in the
Orange Bowl were that to happen. But it rests on Kansas State now, this coming
Saturday in Kansas City.
If Oklahoma can beat Kansas State a second time, there would be
virtually no question that, at 12-0, they would deserve to go to the Orange Bowl.
The big question would be, would 11-1 Florida State or 10-1 Miami or, for that
matter, 10-1 Washington or 10-1 Virginia Tech or 10-1 Oregon State be the most viable
opposition? The BCS thinks Florida State would be, and this is not going to change.
Florida State is in the Orange Bowl. The only question now is who they will
play.
This is why we need a playoff. It has been said
that we don't need a playoff because the season constitutes a playoff of sorts. Just
look at the games played: Florida State vs. Florida, Oregon State vs. Oregon, Oregon State
vs. Washington, Washington vs. Oregon, Oklahoma vs. Nebraska, Oklahoma vs. Kansas State,
Miami vs. Washington, Miami vs. Virginia Tech, Miami vs. Florida State. That's all
well and good, but apparently these playoffs don't count for anything.
Look at it this way: Florida State beat Florida. Miami beat
Florida State. Washington beat Miami. Does Washington deserve to go to the
Orange Bowl? Well, Oregon beat Washington. But Oregon State beat Oregon.
But Washington beat Oregon State. Now we're in a loop. You could look
at it this way: OSU beat Oregon 23-13 and lost to Washington on a last-second field goal
(without which the Beavers could well be going to the Orange Bowl right now?) at
Washington. So Oregon State is probably the best team of those three, as has
been said by most college football analysts.
The fact is, it can't be legitimately resolved like this. And
this is why there needs to be a playoff. Use the BCS rankings if you want - just
seed the top eight teams one through eight. So you'd see this:
1) Oklahoma vs. 8) Nebraska
2) Florida State vs. 7) Florida
3) Miami vs. 6) Oregon State
4) Washington vs. 5) Virginia Tech
Now, these are all marquee matchups that should draw plenty of fans. So the four
main bowls can still get their money - just play the first round at those bowl sites.
After that, you only have three games - in this year's case, play the semis in the
Fiesta and Sugar Bowls and play the finals in the Orange Bowl. The other 21 bowls
can still exist; they can have their pick of whoever's left.
This playoff format would ensure a few things. First of all, it
would ensure that, like the NCAA College Basketball Tournament, the team that is able to
beat the competition is the one that wins, giving you a true national champion.
Secondly, it would prevent the BCS from doing what it does now, which is saving
automatic spots for teams that are not among the top six or eight in the nation (the ACC,
Big East, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac 10, and SEC all have automatic spots) - and furthermore,
from choosing at-large teams that will give them the most money. Oregon State is
going to be sent to the Holiday Bowl despite its #5 poll ranking and #6 BCS ranking.
And why? Because Notre Dame (#11 AP/#10 Coaches'/#11 BCS) is a bigger draw.
This is a real problem.
The bigger problem, though, is the fact that the money
holds the current system in place for years to come. College football won't even be
able to switch to a playoff until 2005 or so, and even at that point, it would have to
find some way to appease the bowls, which are ever so dependent on money. Sure,
Oregon State won't draw like Notre Dame will, but you have to look at it and say,
"Which team really deserves to be here?" And the answer to that question,
answered by every poll there is, from the AP and Coaches' to all eight computer rankings
to the BCS overall, is Oregon State. The Beavers are more than 10 BCS points ahead
of the Irish, which is a huge differential. Yet while the Irish will get 12
million dollars and go to the Fiesta Bowl, the Beavers will get shunted off to San Diego
for the mere reason that the Irish will sell more tickets.
If we're just going to do this anyway, why don't we have the polls go
by who will sell the most tickets in the first place? I bet you Notre Dame fans will
be happy to see that their team finishes #1 in the polls every week, with Michigan right
up there, and the like. That way, the teams ranked at the top of the polls will all
go the appropriate bowl games, instead of now, when those non-traditional powers have good
seasons but get screwed because they don't have 970 bazillion fans around the country.
Phew. Okay, I'm done.