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July 23, 2005

   It's almost hard to believe when you think about it.  Alma (and yes, baby, I do have to thank you) insisted that I at least try reading the Harry Potter books - so I started Wednesday around noon, as my car was being repaired, with Sorcerer's Stone.  By that night I was already finished with both it and Chamber of Secrets, and on Thursday I finished Prisoner of Azkaban (a little easier since I'd seen the movie) and Goblet of Fire, and even started on Order of the Phoenix, as Alma was completing her reading of the latest book.  Finishing Order of the Phoenix on Friday evening, I then set almost directly into Half-Blood Prince, finally completing it around 3:30 this morning.  I have been doing other things, but not much, I'm ashamed to say - but if you're a Harry Potter addict as I must confess I almost instantly became, you will understand why.  I thought Alma herself showed incredible restraint in waiting several days after the release of Half-Blood Prince to read it because she wanted to go back through the other books first to refresh her memory (in a manner reminiscent of when Rich, Drew, and I watched the four previous Star Wars films prior to seeing Attack of the Clones in 2002); it's literally impossible to imagine myself doing that in 2007 or whenever the next one comes out (the schedule has been about one every two years since the books got longer, with Phoenix coming out in 2003, Goblet in 2001, and Azkaban in 2000).  But then, it seems almost equally unlikely that I will not have read the books again between now and then; my mind is swirling so thickly with plots, quotes, and thoughts after the recent marathon that I need my own pensieve.

The following will contain spoilers for Half-Blood Prince as well as thoughts on the seventh book that may constitute spoilery stuff for anyone who has not yet read the sixth book.  Personally, I think that if you couldn't even beat me, a guy who snorted derisively at the throngs of people in Borders just last week, to reading HBP, you almost deserve to have it spoiled... but I'm still not going to.  The following text will be small and dark, hopefully making it unreadable without being highlighted, but be careful just in case your particular screen makes it look a little different.

I thought Harry and Ginny should get together from the second or third book, so it was great to see it happen in HBP, though of course Rowling had to ruin that by breaking them up at the end.  With Ron and Hermione announcing their intentions to stick around and help Harry, hopefully Ginny will pull a Mary-Jane-in-Spider-Man 2 and insist on staying with him as well.   After all, it's her tenacity and independence, along with her skill as a witch, that makes her a good match for Harry just as we know that Lily was a good match for James.  Plus I think it's unfair of Rowling to make the last book so dark that Harry isn't allowed that kind of relationship; just because he'll probably end up facing Voldemort alone doesn't mean he has to spend the whole book like that.  And surely Ginny could help finding the Horcruxes.

One wonders just how large a role Hogwarts will play in the final book.  It will probably stay open, but with an undoubtedly reduced student body and Harry itching to go after both Snape and Voldemort, I doubt the action can stay there too long.

Harry turning 17, at which point the blood ties to his aunt and uncle's house are supposed to wear off, will probably be the first major point in the book.  It's possible that there will be a pitched battle to get him out of there, just within the first handful of chapters.

Rowling has said she will be killing off more characters, and based on the moving-on-up series of deaths that went from Cedric Diggory to Sirius Black to Dumbledore, it wouldn't be the worst guess to assume that one of the "big three" - Harry, Ron, and Hermione, of course - won't survive book seven.  Personally, I don't think it will be Harry; for all Rowling's sly talk, needling fans with lines like "I don't know why you're so sure Harry will make it to adulthood," I imagine she'd be hard-pressed to kill off her own hero (especially when the books are told with a third-person narrator but largely from Harry's point-of-view, with a couple of early chapters in HBP providing two of the few counterexamples I can think of).

Is Snape still actually good?   Despite the last 100 pages or so of HBP, there is still plenty of evidence that Snape, regardless of his actions, is a "white hat."  One argument, voiced on the Harry Potter Lexicon site, is that Snape was tricked into making the Unbreakable Vow, kept Malfoy in check all year while Dumbledore shared with Harry as much as he could, and then stepped in and killed Dumbledore, which both saved Malfoy's quasi-innocence (though he'd been using Unforgivable Curses all over the place, it would seem that the Killing Curse is another thing entirely) and no doubt ingratiated himself even more with Voldemort - which, in theory, allows him to help out the side of good.  Note also that Snape certainly seemed capable of taking Harry in their aborted duel at the end, but claimed to be leaving him for Voldemort.  Snape may have misinterpreted the prophecy and believed that Voldemort was the only one who could kill Harry (which does not seem to be the case), but otherwise he surely would have realized that with Voldemort nowhere in the area, and with Harry a bigger threat alive than dead, that he could have taken matters into his own hands if he so desired.  Note also that Snape basically ignored Harry during his detentions for the attack on Malfoy.  Note, alternately, that Snape's occlumency lessons in Phoenix seemed to do more harm than good, the end result being that Harry ran off to the Department of Mysteries, to Sirius' peril and nearly to his own; the argument here, of course, is that Snape was lowering Harry's defenses on purpose.

At any rate, I have a strong suspicion that either Snape or Wormtail will "come around" and help Harry and friends (or just Harry) in the final struggle against Voldemort, à la Vader tossing the Emperor down a shaft at the end of Return of the Jedi.  Though Rowling does say that the books are not Star Wars - but that's usually in response to silly questions like "Is Voldemort really Harry's father?"

The last word of Book Seven is, according to Rowling, "scar," and she has apparently already written the last chapter, an epilogue that explains what happens to the surviving characters (and she assures us that characters that would otherwise appear in the epilogue will die).  I have a very hard time believing (a) that the last word would reference Harry (as it clearly does) unless he were still alive and (b) that Voldemort survives, because otherwise an epilogue would seem kind of silly.  ("Ron and Hermione got married, but then were killed, because Voldemort was still in power because Harry was dead."   Not thinking so.)  The one downside to this guesswork is that because Rowling is assured a huge audience regardless, and because she has no plans to write any more books after the seventh, she can probably get away with doing whatever - and I do mean whatever - she wants.  I do think that will stop short of killing Harry, but the Ron/Hermione shippers had better watch out.

July 19, 2005

   Well, the Cubs diary has probably been a little boring so far.  The hope for me is that eventually I will have real stories to add, like actually going to the game, or turning it on at a crucial moment, or something.  I don't know.  Should I not have gone daily?  Eh.  I'll let it play itself out.  Don't read it if you don't want.
    Spied on ESPN.com today:

    I'll grant that the Royals aren't very good, but let's give credit where credit is due, huh?

July 18, 2005

   Inspired by a dream I had last night, I have decided to begin a daily (or at least near-daily) diary chronicling my experience following the Cubs.  I hope it will be at least moderately interesting, especially to those of you afflicted with the same malady, but results may vary.  Read on.

July 17, 2005

   There's a long sports post ahead.  If you don't care about sports, see you next time.

   Saturday's game was pretty cool.  We got there midway through the Fire/Crew game... but I'm sorry, I just can't care about the MLS.  I found myself constantly distracted by conversation.  Had there been stars I knew in the game - say it were a Fire/Galaxy game instead - maybe I could have focused.  As it was, not so much.  It's funny, because Drew and I have been known to watch pretty much any soccer game as long as it was on (like those French Ligue Un teams have big stars).  Maybe it's the difference between international soccer and US soccer?  I feel bad, because if soccer is ever going to catch on big in this country, it's going to have to be the MLS, and people like me, who actually like soccer, need to be leading that charge.  But it's tough.  Maybe if the league can entice a few more stars over and improve the attractiveness of the product on the field?
    I'm rambling.  The Real/Chivas game was awesome, even though we saw no goals in the entire first half (when Real was shooting at the net right in front of us), though Michael Owen did bang one off the crossbar.  The second half saw, of course, three Real goals in the net at the other end of the field.  Chivas did put one into our net - at the time, this gave them a 1-0 lead, which made the place go nuts.   Lots of Chivas fans at Soldier Field.  At any rate, we saw all the stars we came to see - Beckham, Owen, Zidane (I wore my French team replica jersey with Zidane's name on the back, which conveniently is the only soccer jersey I own), Ronaldo, and even Luis Figo, who at only 32 (according to what I just read on ESPN.com) seems totally washed up.  Drew and I, who adopted Figo as our favorite foreign player during the 2002 World Cup (announced in the update of 6/10/02), amused ourselves by chuckling at Figo's various gaffes, including any number of turnovers.  I still think he's cool, though; anyone who can be named World Footballer of the Year (as he was in '02) has to be the man to some degree.  We're much more Owen fans these days, though (I've been a fan since '02; see the 6/7/02 entry).
    In other football news, I was told once that Manchester City is among the richest clubs in England, so why they needed to sell Shaun Wright-Phillips for £21 million, I'm not sure.  It seemed like he was staying and then suddenly he asked to talk to Chelsea.  Does anyone want to bet there could be another tampering charge in Chelsea's future?  Meanwhile, okay, it's nice that City gets £21 million, but are they going to do anything with it?  Peter Crouch (of recently-demoted Southampton) will no doubt be looking to move back into the Premiership, though apparently his first choice is Liverpool (and West Ham already failed in a £6 million bid, as Harry Redknapp is none too keen on losing 20-25 goals).  Andrew Johnson, who scored 21 for Palace last year, would be another possibility, especially since he wants to move up - but Palace management have told him he's not going anywhere.  There has also been talk of Dean Ashton moving to City, but Spurs and others are involved as well, and Ashton says he wants to stay at Norwich despite their demotion.  Hopefully City will bring someone over with Wright-Phillips gone and the season, if you can believe it, less than a month away.  (In karmic news, City open with West Brom in Manchester.  If by some fluke chance this game airs live on FSC, I bet Drew and I watch it.)

    With all the talk of football trades, what about baseball trades?  The Cubs are nearing the point in the season where they either need to give up or make a move.  The last two years, it's been move-making.  One of those worked out great - Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton (though only Aramis has been useful in the long-term) for Bobby Hill and Jose Hernandez on July 23, 2003.  The other, not quite as much - getting Nomar and Matt Murton for A-Gon and a couple prospects at the deadline last year.  To be fair, Nomar has hit nearly .300 when healthy, but that hasn't been often.  At least Murton has been putting in some time in CP's absence.  I just read on ESPN that Nomar wants to stay with the Cubs for a while, if not for good.  That's nice, and we'd love to have him, but he's going to have to take a little pay cut if he can't prove he can stay healthy.  I mean, here's a guy who has never had fewer than 190 hits in a season in which he's played 135 games - but he's only done that six times in ten seasons.  Being one of the best pure hitters in the game isn't much good when that has to be tagged with "when he's healthy."
    Anyway, I'm rambling again.  I got to thinking about my wishlist for possible players the Cubs could bring in sometime in the next two weeks.  Here's the top ten.

10. Joey Gathright, OF, Devil Rays
Pros: From what we've seen so far, a good-hitting speedster.
Cons: What we've seen is 48 at-bats.
Gathright's only played 16 games so far, but he's hitting .313 in them and already has five stolen bases.  He seems to have the potential to be a center-field-playing, leadoff-hitting speed demon - in other words, what Corey Patterson should be but isn't.  On the other hand, he still seems fairly raw and he's unproven.  Could be a good move for the future if the Cubs fall out of the race, but we don't even want to think about that.

9. Wily Mo Pena, OF, Reds
Pros: 12 home runs in 175 at-bats; fills an outfield hole.
Cons: No plate discipline.
Pena could fill a hole in the outfield, though he'd have to move to left.  He has a decent amount of power, but the big con here is the lack of plate discipline.  9 walks in 53 games and 61 strikeouts in the same span?  It would be cheaper to call Corey back up.

8. Roberto Hernandez, RP, Mets
Pros: ERA under 2.00 so far this season.
Cons: 40 years old.
Hernandez makes the list because the Cubs could use another arm in the bullpen, but his age and spotty recent history (he hasn't finished a season with an ERA under 4.00 since 2000) make him a lower priority.

7. Aubrey Huff, OF, Devil Rays
Pros: Good power - went for 30/100 in 2003 and nearly duplicated that in '04 - and usually hits around .300.
Cons: Hitting just .255 so far this season.
It's possible that Huff's struggles could be fixed up with a change of scenery, and maybe he'd come at a lower rate from Chuck LaMar, probably the most hated GM in baseball due to his frequently outrageous demands.  On the other hand, maybe his struggles are indicative of a lingering injury or something else that won't just clear up, and the Cubs don't need another guy who hits .250 in the outfield.

6. Moises Alou, OF, Giants
Pros: Hitting well over .300 with good power; age hasn't slowed him yet.
Cons: Didn't we just get rid of this guy?
The Cubs didn't want to keep paying Moises, so away he went.  With the current hole in left (Hollandsworth has been decent, but he's not an everyday guy), he's looking pretty good right now, isn't he?  The only trouble - he's signed through 2006 at more than he may be worth by then.  Definitely not the best option for a three-month rental.

5. Billy Wagner, RP, Phillies
Pros: 20 saves and a 2.13 ERA; hasn't had a bad year since 2000, when he was slowed by injuries.
Cons: We don't really need a closer.
Sure, getting a stud closer would be nice, and if the Phillies do drop out of the race, Wagner has already suggested that he'd better be on the first train to Contendersville.  But with the Phillies around .500 for the moment, it'll take a lot of work for them to drop far enough in two weeks for his number to get called at the deadline.  But let's assume it does.  The Cubs have Ryan Dempster.  Yes, Wagner's more proven and it couldn't hurt to let Dempster set up and be available for spot starts... actually, this isn't sounding that bad.  Get on it, Hendry!

4. Danys Baez, RP, Devil Rays
Pros: Solid closer (16 saves, 2.46) and on a go-nowhere team.
Cons: LaMar again.
Baez is slightly ahead of Wagner because his team is already out of it.  But with Chuck LaMar at the helm, he may actually be less likely to be dealt, given the probable price tag.  With a good closer as it is, there's no reason to mortgage the future to rent or even own Baez; he's only got two really good years behind him.  But he may not be as attached to closing as Wagner and could possibly return to a setup job (like the one he did in Cleveland in 2001), though only if the price is right.

3. Carl Crawford, OF, Devil Rays
Pros: Speedster who's stolen more than 50 bases each of the last two years and has 28 so far in 2005.
Cons: Overall, not having that great a year.
Crawford may be fast, but what the Cubs need in a leadoff hitter is not just someone who can steal bases but someone who can get on in the first place.  Crawford doesn't walk and strikes out much more, and his OBP for his career is only .314 (it's slightly lower this year), which doesn't cut it.  He would fill the left field hole and he's having a good power year for him, but there are better options.

2. Vernon Wells, OF, Blue Jays
Pros: Can hit for power and average, and fills a hole in center.
Cons: Has been off his form for two years.
Wells had a huge season in 2003 - .317, 33 homers, 117 RBI - and he's a solid glove in center.  His numbers have been down over the past year and a half, though - just .272, 23/67 last year.  This year his power is back up - he's on pace for 32/92 - but his average is still around .270 and his OBP at .320.  Of course, all these numbers are significant improvements over Patterson (.232, 11/24, .270 OBP), and maybe Wells would find his touch again in the Friendly Confines.  Certainly I would like to see a move like this.

1. Adam Dunn, OF, Reds
Pros: Major power guy; excellent OBP; possible fixture in left field for years; keeps him away from Astros.
Cons: Not much for average or defense; Reds might not trade him to us.
It's hard to argue against Dunn, whose possible move to the Cubs has been the sports-radio staple out here for the past week despite the lack of any actual rumor that he might be headed to Chicago.  Yes, his .242 average is the lowest, by nearly 20 points, of the majors' 20 everyday left fielders this season.  But he has 24 home runs, and his .391 OBP is third out of that same group.  Older Cubs fans who are wincing at the potential comparisons to Dave Kingman need not fret - Dunn will give you more than 100 walks a year (Kingman's career high was 62, while he averaged 150 Ks) even as he strikes out 160 times.  And who among us wouldn't take a repeat of Kingman's 1979 season (.288, 48/115), to which Dunn's 2004 card (.266, 46/102) looks strikingly similar?  Most importantly, Dunn has apparently been linked to a possible move to Houston (his hometown), and letting the Astros pull off such a coup while we sit here and do nothing is just not a good idea.  Remember what Beltran did for them last year.  Now, there is the issue of the Reds possibly not wanting to trade Dunn within the division, but if they could trade him to Houston, they could trade him here.  More pertinently, there is the question of trade bait.  Would the Reds be happy with pitching prospects, or are they going to be looking for a proven starter?  What about Rusch plus Mitre plus a prospect or two?  Dunn will get more expensive after the season in arbitration, but it's not like the Cubs don't have the money.  The Reds' management situation is kind of a mess, though, and they may end up not trading anyone.  Still, if I wake up on August 1 and see that Dunn is an Astro, I'm going to be very upset.

    With their own TV network, frequent sellouts, and solid merchandising, you know that the Cubs have plenty of money to spend.  Maybe not Yankee-level money, but it's there.  The trick is spending it.  Would it suck to see a championship ride into town on a wave of money and then potentially sweep out again just as fast (à la the 1997 Marlins)?  Yes, it would, but the core of this team is locked up at the moment and renting someone who can put it over the hump while a few more prospects develop isn't going to upset me.  What is going to upset me is seeing the Cubs squander this current golden time with a single playoff appearance in 2003.  Hendry is a good GM who's willing to deal; let's see him put some Tribune Company money where his mouth is.

July 12, 2005

   I tried to set up a PHP board for the site today because I'm so sick of the spam, but I don't think I have the right kind of server to do it, which sucks.  Of course, considering the low traffic the message board gets, making people sign up might have killed interest altogether - although, in that paradoxical way, maybe it would have helped get people more involved.  I have no way of saying for sure, and it looks like now we'll never know.  I'm still considering setting up an EZBoard or something like that, but the PHP would have been pretty much the only way I could have run one ad-free besides the current one.  (Though with all the spam, I guess it's not ad-free.)  Feel free to weigh in on whether you'd like a better board, though with the low traffic it gets, I expect a maximum of two responses.
    I finally got the review for Revenge of the Sith written, only about two weeks after I saw it.  It's passable, but Lucas demonstrates once again what doomed the prequel series as a whole: a fait accompli aspect to the plot, a lack of wit or charm in the dialogue, and (though I didn't bother mentioning it in the review) an overreliance on green screens.

July 11, 2005

    Can we all just let it go already?

    A recent feature on ESPN.com saw writer and Cubs fan Wayne Drehs attempt to track down the reclusive Steve Bartman, the fan whose contact with a foul ball has long been unfairly blamed for costing the Cubs a trip to the World Series in 2003.  To his credit, Drehs concludes what most people should - that it wasn't Bartman's fault.  But the very fact that such a story was assigned and written says all one needs to know about the media desire for scapegoats that trickles down to too many fans.  I think most people have gotten over it by now, but for those who haven't, a few things to consider:
    * Every single fan in the vicinity of that foul ball was going for it.  If Bartman hadn't touched it, you'd just have someone else to kick around, and someone else who wouldn't deserve it.
    * Some of the blame goes to Baker.  Prior was beginning to look gassed in that inning.  It's not like Castillo got a hit after being kept alive by the dropped foul - Prior walked him.  And worse, he threw a wild pitch that allowed Pierre to advance to third.
    * Hello - Alex Gonzalez?  I don't know why Leon Durham Jr. seems to have gotten a free pass in all of this.  I mean, he was bad enough during the season - 57 extra-base hits but just 59 RBI, 76 more Ks than walks, a batting average of .228 despite playing every day.  But at least he'd only made ten errors all season... then he booted a routine grounder from Miguel Cabrera that did more to keep the inning alive than the dropped foul, since it was a double play waiting to happen with Pudge coming from first.  If you ask me, A-Gon's free pass (except from the team itself, as he was shipped out after just 37 games in 2004, traded, in a four-way deal, for Nomar) at Bartman's expense may be more egregious than the way in which Bill Buckner took all the blame for the '86 Red Sox collapse, while Calvin Schiraldi and Bob Stanley seemed to get away clean.
    * Game Seven.  A lot of people seem to forget this about the '86 World Series too.  And just like those Red Sox, the Cubs took another lead in the seventh game (5-3 as late as the top of the fifth).  But Wood, who had otherwise looked strong in the playoffs (going 2-0 with 18 Ks and just 3 ER against Atlanta), just sucked out loud, giving up seven runs and walking four guys in just five and two-thirds.  If your supposed ace can't win a game for you when you need it most, does that say something?
    * The Cubs were maybe not that great.  Do you know how many position players are left from that 2003 playoff team?  One.  Aramis Ramirez is the only position player from the playoff roster still with the Cubs.  Of all the other players who saw even a game of action for the Cubs in 2003, only Corey Patterson started 2005 with the team (and he's in the minors right now!).  Gone are Sosa, Alou, Karros, Simon, Lofton, Miller and Bako, Gonzalez, and Grudzielanek, along with everyone on the bench (Glanville, Goodwin, O'Leary, and Martinez).  Even the pitchers aren't that similar - Wood, Prior, and Zambrano are still there, but Clement is gone.  Mike Remlinger is the only reliever on that playoff roster still with the team; of the 17 pitchers who threw at least one inning for the Cubs in '03, only six are still around.  And this is two years later.  Do you think that maybe, just maybe, there is a reason those guys aren't around anymore?  And maybe the reason the Cubs didn't win is that they just weren't as good?  I mean, the Marlins - who, by the way, had three more wins than the Cubs did - were good enough that the Cubs raided them after the season, importing both Derrek Lee and Todd Hollandsworth.  That might say something.  Blaming the failure of a good-but-not-good-enough team on a fan who was just in the wrong place at the wrong time?  I'm not up for it.  (I anticipate the point that the Cubs won the division that year, but note that this preceded the point at which the Cardinals became dominant.  Also note that 2003's Cubs were just 47-47 at the All-Star Break.  It's not over for 2005 yet.)
    The last two games of that series were as depressing for me as they were for anyone, but really, isn't it time we moved on with our lives?  At the very least, it's time we let Bartman move on with his.  Please, Wayne: next time your editors give you an assignment like this, see if you can talk them out of it.

July 9, 2005

   Plenty of news to deliver.  Let's start with what I consider the most important: Alma and I celebrated our 1.5-year anniversary today.  How much do I love this woman?  More than you'll ever know.  How many people would actively humor, if not outright enjoy, my borderline-crazy obsession with miniature golf?  I absolutely could not have asked for any more in a girlfriend, nor would I have dared hope for it.  Baby, you're perfect.

    The rest of you can stop gagging now.  The next bit of news, only incrementally less important, is this: I've got another job.  Yeah, it's just another temp assignment.  Want to fight?  It's at a bank this time, so that should be interesting.
    The music tournament is still going, but then you know that already.   If you don't, you should be getting your ass over to bigflax.blogspot.com and voting.
    Alma and I, along with Drew and his lady friend, will be attending Soldier Field in one week to see a soccer doubleheader: the Fire vs. the Crew, followed by an awesome friendly between Real Madrid and Chivas.  You're jealous.
    Have the Cubs figured it out?  Two games is probably too small a sample size, but I can dream.

July 1, 2005

   I should be updating the music tournament tonight, but I'm too tired, so I'll get around to it tomorrow morning/afternoon.  Most people don't seem to vote in these things on weekends anyway (Craig doesn't even run his over the weekend), so maybe it's just as well.  If you haven't already voted in the current round, I'll count any votes that come in before I actually make the update (since we're a little shorter than last round), though I imagine that pretty much everyone who reads this and cares to vote has already done so.  Worth a shot.
    Drew and I had our blowout 72-hole mini golf tournament today.  I won't spoil the ending for you - check out the mini golf page for that little tidbit!

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This page last updated: Sunday, July 24, 2005 01:36:28 AM